Thursday, October 30, 2008
Have you heard of the Bradley Effect? The short description is that when polled, Caucasians will claim to be voting for an African-American candidate but when the same Caucasians are in the voting booth with guaranteed anonymity they will actually vote for a Caucasian candidate. The polls are skewed by the "white-guilt" of the responders.
Obama is ahead in the polls. How much of his lead is due to the Bradley Effect?
I also wonder about a form of the Dewey Effect (if you will recall, Dewey though he had won the election due to polls, but the polls were skewed due to the number of people without phones). Since increasing numbers of people are opting to not have a land-line telephone and to only have a cell phone, those individuals are under represented in the polls.
Do the Bradley Effect and the Dewey Effect offset?